Toronto's transit plans have a very long and complicated history. Here's what happened recently:
-After taking office, Rob Ford cancelled David Miller's Transit City plan.
-In March 2011, the Mayor signed a 'Memorandum of Understanding' (MoU) with Metrolinx, with the agency agreeing to spend $8.4 billion on the Eglinton-Scarborough Crosstown LRT. Let's call it the Ford plan. This plan has not been brought to a vote before City Council yet. The Mayor was planning to hold the vote in April.
-Several councillors (including TTC Chair Karen Stintz) have been working to get this line built according to its Transit City specs. Let's call this the Transit City plan. We are only talking about Eglinton here, not the rest of Transit City.
-On January 23, Karen Stintz publicly supported the Transit City plan, making the point that it will save money that can be diverted to other projects such as the Sheppard Subway.
-On January 31, Metrolinx sent a letter to the city asking Council to approve the Ford plan to ensure that the City is bound by it.
-On January 31 (same day as the letter), the TTC voted to shelve a staff report on the pros and cons of the Ford plan. Stintz was outvoted by the Mayor's allies, and this was largely seen as punishment for her recent public support for the Transit City plan.
-On February 6, Karen Stintz submitted a signed petition from 24 Councillors (including herself) to the City Clerk calling a Special Meeting on February 8.
-On the same day, Stintz replied to Metrolinx's letter stating that the Special Meeting will "reaffirm the November, 2009, Memorandum of Agreement ("MoA") between Metrolinx, the Toronto Transit Commission, and the City of Toronto." This 'MoA' would be the Transit City plan.
Considering the fact that 24/44 Councillors already sided with Stintz, Ford will probably lose this vote. There will be a lot of hoopla over this, and a lot of lefties will probably jizz their pants. Just kidding (not really).
Metrolinx has stated that it wants Council and the Mayor to agree on one plan, which will not happen. It is ultimately their decision which line gets built. There are four possibilities:
1 - Proceed with the Transit City plan, and use the $2 Billion savings as the City wants.
2 - Proceed with the Transit City plan, but withhold the $2 Billion in savings.
3 - Proceed with the Ford plan.
4 - Decide to build nothing since Council and the Mayor can't agree on a plan.
I have no idea what they're thinking, but the Province is in cost cutting mode so I think #2 is likely and #4 is possible. Metrolinx has stated that sticking to the Transit City plan will save $2 Billion from the $8.4 Billion budget, but they have also stated that it's "too early" to say whether the money will be shifted to the Sheppard project. Remember, the Province has broken its transit funding promises in the past.
Now, let's take a look at the two plans. Both sides have misrepresented their opponent's plans (quite egregiously on some occasions). Here's what I know:
Scope - There is only one line along Eglinton. There is nothing else. Transit City proponents keep talking about the Sheppard, Finch, and other LRT lines as if they are a part of this $8.4 Billion plan. They are not. Ford proponents keep talking about the Sheppard subway extension in the same manner, but there is no money for it.
Route - Both plans will follow the exact same route. The Eglinton line will be built from Black Creek creek drive to Scarborough Town Centre. The existing Scarborough RT will be replaced by this line, which will continue its run on the already-built RT line. Therefore, both plans will have one continuous line along Eglinton Ave to Scarborough Town Centre to McCowan.
Surface vs Underground - The main difference between the lines is Transit City's surface component and lower cost. Transit City's line will run underground from Black Creek to Laird, then above ground until Kennedy. Ford's line will run be fully underground.
Cost - The Transit City line will cost $2 Billion less due to the surface component. Stintz and co. want to divert that money to other projects, but that will not necessarily happen.
Speed and Reliability - The Ford line will cut travel time by 25% since it will not encounter traffic lights. It will also be more reliable for the same reason.
Ridership and Capacity - The Ford line will have double the peak ridership and a higher capacity.
Automation - The Ford line will be driverless, the Transit City line will require drivers.
LRT vs Subway - Both plans will use LRT. A proper subway is categorized as Rapid Transit (RT), which we are not getting under any plan. Light Rapid Transit (LRT) is simply the 'lighter' version of Subways. Ford supporters are misleading you when they present this as a Streetcar vs Subway debate, because it is not. According to the Toronto Environmental Alliance, LRTs run at an average of 27 km/h and Subways run at an average of 32 km/h. But, when an LRT is underground, it runs at subway-like speeds. So, the Transit City plan gets us LRT that is both underground (faster) and above ground (slower). The Ford plan gets us LRT underground (faster) only. You could get away with calling this a Subway since it runs underground at similar speeds, even though it does not have the higher capacity and higher speed.
Now, for politics. I wanted to see a map mashup with the city's Wards and the LRT but I couldn't find one. So I decided to make one myself. The Star published a handy article tracking support for both plans.
The LRT line cuts through 11 wards. I've marked the Ford supporters in Blue, the Stintz supporters in Red, and the Undecided/Unknowns in White. The Underground portion of the new line is in Blue, and the surface portion is in Red.
12 - Frank Di Giorgio - Ford
17 - Cesar Palacio - Unknown
15 - Josh Colle - Stintz
16 - Karen Stintz - Stintz
21 - Joe Mihevc - Stintz
22 - Josh Matlow - Stintz
25 - Jaye Robinson - Undecided
26 - John Parker - Stintz
34 - Denzil Minnan-Wong - Undecided
35 - Michelle Berardinetti - Undecided
37 - Michael Thompson - Undecided
Underground - Giorgio, Palacio, Colle, Stintz, Mihevc, and Matlow's constituents will get the underground LRT one way or another. From this group, Giorgio is the only confirmed supporter of the Ford plan. Colle/Stintz/Mihevc/Matlow are willing to screw over the wards to their East by sticking them with surface LRT (while their own constituents are guaranteed underground LRT). Palacio is undecided, but he tends to vote with Ford.
Surface - Robinson, Parker, Minnan-Wong, Berardinetti, and Thompson's wards are all in the potential surface LRT zone. All but Parker are undecided. I don't see how they vote for the Stintz plan, since all of them vote with Ford more than 70% of the time and their constituents will probably want the faster underground LRT. John Parker's case is interesting, since he votes with Ford very often, and his ward is in the surface zone. Yet he is on record having called the Ford plan 'goofy.' I wonder if his constituents agree.
To sum it up: The Transit City line will cost less, but will also be slower, with lower ridership, lower capacity, lower reliability. It will also require unionized TTC Drivers. But, it may get us an extra $2 Billion for the Sheppard subway extension. The Ford line will cost $2 Billion more, but that money will get us faster trains, higher ridership, higher capacity, higher reliability, and automation. These are facts, not opinions.
-After taking office, Rob Ford cancelled David Miller's Transit City plan.
-In March 2011, the Mayor signed a 'Memorandum of Understanding' (MoU) with Metrolinx, with the agency agreeing to spend $8.4 billion on the Eglinton-Scarborough Crosstown LRT. Let's call it the Ford plan. This plan has not been brought to a vote before City Council yet. The Mayor was planning to hold the vote in April.
-Several councillors (including TTC Chair Karen Stintz) have been working to get this line built according to its Transit City specs. Let's call this the Transit City plan. We are only talking about Eglinton here, not the rest of Transit City.
-On January 23, Karen Stintz publicly supported the Transit City plan, making the point that it will save money that can be diverted to other projects such as the Sheppard Subway.
-On January 31, Metrolinx sent a letter to the city asking Council to approve the Ford plan to ensure that the City is bound by it.
-On January 31 (same day as the letter), the TTC voted to shelve a staff report on the pros and cons of the Ford plan. Stintz was outvoted by the Mayor's allies, and this was largely seen as punishment for her recent public support for the Transit City plan.
-On February 6, Karen Stintz submitted a signed petition from 24 Councillors (including herself) to the City Clerk calling a Special Meeting on February 8.
-On the same day, Stintz replied to Metrolinx's letter stating that the Special Meeting will "reaffirm the November, 2009, Memorandum of Agreement ("MoA") between Metrolinx, the Toronto Transit Commission, and the City of Toronto." This 'MoA' would be the Transit City plan.
Considering the fact that 24/44 Councillors already sided with Stintz, Ford will probably lose this vote. There will be a lot of hoopla over this, and a lot of lefties will probably jizz their pants. Just kidding (not really).
Metrolinx has stated that it wants Council and the Mayor to agree on one plan, which will not happen. It is ultimately their decision which line gets built. There are four possibilities:
1 - Proceed with the Transit City plan, and use the $2 Billion savings as the City wants.
2 - Proceed with the Transit City plan, but withhold the $2 Billion in savings.
3 - Proceed with the Ford plan.
4 - Decide to build nothing since Council and the Mayor can't agree on a plan.
I have no idea what they're thinking, but the Province is in cost cutting mode so I think #2 is likely and #4 is possible. Metrolinx has stated that sticking to the Transit City plan will save $2 Billion from the $8.4 Billion budget, but they have also stated that it's "too early" to say whether the money will be shifted to the Sheppard project. Remember, the Province has broken its transit funding promises in the past.
Now, let's take a look at the two plans. Both sides have misrepresented their opponent's plans (quite egregiously on some occasions). Here's what I know:
Scope - There is only one line along Eglinton. There is nothing else. Transit City proponents keep talking about the Sheppard, Finch, and other LRT lines as if they are a part of this $8.4 Billion plan. They are not. Ford proponents keep talking about the Sheppard subway extension in the same manner, but there is no money for it.
Route - Both plans will follow the exact same route. The Eglinton line will be built from Black Creek creek drive to Scarborough Town Centre. The existing Scarborough RT will be replaced by this line, which will continue its run on the already-built RT line. Therefore, both plans will have one continuous line along Eglinton Ave to Scarborough Town Centre to McCowan.
Surface vs Underground - The main difference between the lines is Transit City's surface component and lower cost. Transit City's line will run underground from Black Creek to Laird, then above ground until Kennedy. Ford's line will run be fully underground.
Cost - The Transit City line will cost $2 Billion less due to the surface component. Stintz and co. want to divert that money to other projects, but that will not necessarily happen.
Speed and Reliability - The Ford line will cut travel time by 25% since it will not encounter traffic lights. It will also be more reliable for the same reason.
Ridership and Capacity - The Ford line will have double the peak ridership and a higher capacity.
Automation - The Ford line will be driverless, the Transit City line will require drivers.
LRT vs Subway - Both plans will use LRT. A proper subway is categorized as Rapid Transit (RT), which we are not getting under any plan. Light Rapid Transit (LRT) is simply the 'lighter' version of Subways. Ford supporters are misleading you when they present this as a Streetcar vs Subway debate, because it is not. According to the Toronto Environmental Alliance, LRTs run at an average of 27 km/h and Subways run at an average of 32 km/h. But, when an LRT is underground, it runs at subway-like speeds. So, the Transit City plan gets us LRT that is both underground (faster) and above ground (slower). The Ford plan gets us LRT underground (faster) only. You could get away with calling this a Subway since it runs underground at similar speeds, even though it does not have the higher capacity and higher speed.
Now, for politics. I wanted to see a map mashup with the city's Wards and the LRT but I couldn't find one. So I decided to make one myself. The Star published a handy article tracking support for both plans.
The LRT line cuts through 11 wards. I've marked the Ford supporters in Blue, the Stintz supporters in Red, and the Undecided/Unknowns in White. The Underground portion of the new line is in Blue, and the surface portion is in Red.
12 - Frank Di Giorgio - Ford
17 - Cesar Palacio - Unknown
15 - Josh Colle - Stintz
16 - Karen Stintz - Stintz
21 - Joe Mihevc - Stintz
22 - Josh Matlow - Stintz
25 - Jaye Robinson - Undecided
26 - John Parker - Stintz
34 - Denzil Minnan-Wong - Undecided
35 - Michelle Berardinetti - Undecided
37 - Michael Thompson - Undecided
Underground - Giorgio, Palacio, Colle, Stintz, Mihevc, and Matlow's constituents will get the underground LRT one way or another. From this group, Giorgio is the only confirmed supporter of the Ford plan. Colle/Stintz/Mihevc/Matlow are willing to screw over the wards to their East by sticking them with surface LRT (while their own constituents are guaranteed underground LRT). Palacio is undecided, but he tends to vote with Ford.
Surface - Robinson, Parker, Minnan-Wong, Berardinetti, and Thompson's wards are all in the potential surface LRT zone. All but Parker are undecided. I don't see how they vote for the Stintz plan, since all of them vote with Ford more than 70% of the time and their constituents will probably want the faster underground LRT. John Parker's case is interesting, since he votes with Ford very often, and his ward is in the surface zone. Yet he is on record having called the Ford plan 'goofy.' I wonder if his constituents agree.
To sum it up: The Transit City line will cost less, but will also be slower, with lower ridership, lower capacity, lower reliability. It will also require unionized TTC Drivers. But, it may get us an extra $2 Billion for the Sheppard subway extension. The Ford line will cost $2 Billion more, but that money will get us faster trains, higher ridership, higher capacity, higher reliability, and automation. These are facts, not opinions.
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