What Tony Blair said

Blair blames spate of murders on black culture.

Most of us have heard/seen/read reactions to this story, but let us analyze what he actually said. The italics are mine, and the quotes are from the Guardian article linked above. I feel that the Guardian and the rest of the media unfairly spun his comments.

"He said people had to drop their political correctness and recognise that the violence would not be stopped "by pretending it is not young black kids doing it".

I realize this is already inflammatory to some, but what really angered people comes later.

"Giving the Callaghan lecture in Cardiff, the prime minister admitted he had been "lurching into total frankness" in the final weeks of his premiership. He called on black people to lead the fight against knife crime. He said that "the black community - the vast majority of whom in these communities are decent, law abiding people horrified at what is happening - need to be mobilised in denunciation of this gang culture that is killing innocent young black kids"."

So far so good, no? Or has he crossed the line already? He said that gang culture is killing black kids, not black culture. But somehow the Guardian headline spins that as him blaming black culture, when he was actually extra careful to state that the black community is being victimized by gang culture.

"Answering questions later Mr Blair said: "Economic inequality is a factor and we should deal with that, but I don't think it's the thing that is producing the most violent expression of this social alienation. I think that is to do with the fact that particular youngsters are being brought up in a setting that has no rules, no discipline, no proper framework around them.""

This is where he gets into trouble. He states that there are factors beyond economic inequality that explain the violence, and that the way these kids are being raised (i.e. bad parenting) is a big factor. So most people didn't seem to have a problem with his assertion that it's young black kids committing these crimes, the cries of racism arise from his assertion that bad parenting is as important as economic inequality, if not more so.

Can we really disagree with this? Being poor matters, but bad parenting matters too. This is the only way to explain how a lot of very poor kids (from all races) do not turn into criminals. When you control for economic inequality, bad parenting is a major factor leading to future criminal activity.

Now, let's examine the text of his speech and put it in context. Blair was commenting on "the spate of knife and gun murders in London," so these weren't some random off the cuff comments, but with regards to recent criminal activity.

He starts off talking about former Labour Prime Minister Jim Callaghan, moves into investments in the public realm and how there are improvements all across the UK, then in the last quarter of his speech switches gears into how crime affects the public sphere.

"In truth, most young people are perfectly decent and law-abiding, more likely to be victims than perpetrators of crime. Most families are not dysfunctional. Most people, even in the hardest communities, are content to play fairly and by the rules. Most young black boys are not involved in knife and gun gangs."

Hey look how the Guardian piece totally ignores this part of his speech. He then draws a parallel between soccer hooliganism and the current gang problem. He mentions that hooligans are a small segment of soccer fans. Similarly, gang members are a small component of black kids.

"What we are dealing with is not a general social disorder; but specific groups or people who for one reason or another, are deciding not to abide by the same code of conduct as the rest of us. This came home to me when, at the recent summit I held on knife and gun crime, the black Pastor of a London church said bluntly: when are we going to start saying this is a problem amongst a section of the black community and not, for reasons of political correctness, pretend that this is nothing to do with it."

He restates that the problem is amongst a section of the black community, and that it must be directly addressed without worrying about political correctness.

"In the end, football hooliganism was dealt with by a combination of tougher laws, intensive police work, and reducing the possibilities of organised violence. It worked. But it only worked when people stopped pretending it was a problem of football fans. We need to do the same in dealing with these latest manifestations of severe disorder. In respect of knife and gun gangs, the laws need to be significantly toughened. There needs to be an intensive police focus, on these groups. The ring-leaders need to be identified and taken out of circulation; if very young, as some are, put in secure accommodation . The black community - the vast majority of whom in these communities are decent, law-abiding people horrified at what is happening - need to be mobilised in denunciation of this gang culture that is killing innocent young black kids. But we won't stop this by pretending it isn't young black kids doing it."

So he's saying the specific problem has been identified just as it had been with soccer hooliganism, and now it needs to be dealt with.

"In the same way, at the risk of again being misrepresented, as advocating baby ASBOs, or some such nonsense, those families known to the social services, health workers, often the law enforcement agencies, who are dysfunctional and whose children are being brought up in chaos, need to be identified early and put within a proper structured disciplined framework where in return for their state benefits, they get the right mix of pressure and support to change."

Well he already knew his comments would draw fire and be misrepresented. Blair not only identifies the specific problem, but puts forward a specific policy prescription, which may or may not work. The media/public focus on this speech shouuld be that the Prime Minister just addressed a major problem and detailed policies that his government will follow to deal with the problem.

So, to recap: Responding to a huge problem with gang-related violence amongst black youth in London, Tony Blair states that:

a) it's obviously a problem amongst young black youth,

b) most black youth/families are good people and are being victimized by a few criminals,

c) economic inequality cannot by itself account for this violence, parenting (of the criminal youth) has a lot to do with it,

d) the public must do their part, i.e. the black community must rally against this gang culture,

e) the government will follow certain policies to deal with it on their end

There is virtually no discussion at all about the policy, which itself is should be the source of controversy. He's talking about identifying problematic families, and putting conditions on receiving social benefits, hoping that the mix of pressure and support will lead to beavioural change through better parenting.

Again, this is a bold policy prescription and we're not talking about it! This particular problem will never be dealt with if every honest attempt is met with accusations of racism. We always accuse politicians about not having any new ideas, or being too cowardly to suggest tough policies that might work. Here it is folks, so let's debate the merits of the prescribed policy.